Breaking Down the Crazy 2017 OUA Football Playoff Scenarios

Week 9 of the OUA football season is upon us and we could not have asked for a better end to the season. Four of the six playoff spots have been accounted for already, but the two remaining spots have FOUR teams fighting for just those two spots. Each team has a different scenario and each one is as crazy as the other. This means that each team will require their own playoff scenario breakdown. York, Toronto and Windsor have already been eliminated from the playoffs, therefore they will not be discussed in this article.

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1. (CUSN #4) Western Mustangs (7-0)

Week 9 Matchup: vs. Ottawa (5-2)

Scenario #1: 1^st seed

How: They’ve already clinched

This one was easy. The Mustangs have earned first place regardless of the outcome this last week of games.

2. (CUSN #5) McMaster Marauders (6-1)

Week 9 Matchup: @ Laurier (5-2)

Scenario #1: 2^nd seed

How: Win vs. Laurier

Scenario #2: 3^rd seed

How: Loss vs. Laurier

Win and take second place — it’s that simple. The Marauders cannot finish lower than third based off of their win against Ottawa.

3. (CUSN #6) Laurier Golden Hawks (5-2)

Week 9 Matchup: vs. McMaster (6-1)

Scenario #1: 2^nd Seed

How: Win vs. McMaster

Scenario #2: 3^rd place

How: Loss vs. Laurier + Ottawa Loss vs. Western

Scenario #3: 4^th Seed

How: Loss vs. Laurier + Ottawa Win vs. Western

Laurier’s loss to Guelph last week means that there is a chance that they may fall to the conference’s fourth seed. However, a “win-and-take-second-place” game against the Marauders, as in that situation both teams would finish with 6-2 records and Laurier would then hold the head-to-head tie break.

4. Ottawa Gee-Gees (5-2)

Week 9 Matchup: @Western (7-0)

Scenario #1: 3^rd Seed

How: Win vs. Western + McMaster win vs. Laurier

Scenario #2: 4^th Seed

How: Win vs. Western + Laurier win vs. McMaster

Scenario #3: 4^th Seed

How: Loss vs. Western

Only one scenario puts Ottawa into third place, but a win against Western (who has nothing to play for) would be huge for the Gee-Gees regardless of where they finish.

5. (CUSN #8) Guelph Gryphons (4-3)

Week 9 Matchup: @ Carleton (3-4)

Scenario #1: 4^th Seed

How: Win vs. Carleton + Laurier loss vs. McMaster

Scenario #2: 5^th Seed

How: Win vs. Carleton + Laurier win vs. McMaster

Scenario #3: 5^th Seed

How: Loss vs. Carleton by one point + Queen’s loss vs. Toronto

Scenario #4: 6^th Seed

How: Loss vs. Carleton + Queen’s win vs. Toronto

Scenario #5: 6^th Seed

How: Loss vs. Carleton by 2-4 points + Queen’s loss vs. Toronto

Scenario #6: 7^th Seed

How: Loss vs. Carleton by five or more points + Queen’s Loss vs. Toronto

This is where things get complicated. Guelph’s win against Laurier last week all but guarantees them a playoff spot, however, a win takes all the pressure off. Guelph will make the playoffs with a loss and a Queen’s win due to the four-way tie with all teams being 4-4. According to the OUA’s Tie-breaker Rules the record against common opponents would come into play, and Guelph’s win over Laurier is the tie breaker that puts them in the playoffs.

6. Waterloo Warriors (4-4)

Week 9 Matchup: BYE

Scenario #1: 6^th Seed

How: Guelph win vs. Carleton + Queen’s loss vs. Toronto

Scenario #2: 6^th Seed

How: Guelph loss vs. Carleton by five or more points + Queen’s loss vs. Toronto

Scenario #3: 7^th Seed — Miss the Playoffs

How: Guelph loss vs. Carleton by 1-4 points + Queen’s loss vs. Toronto

Scenario #4: 7^th Seed — Miss the Playoffs

How: Guelph win vs. Carleton + Queen’s win vs. Toronto

Scenario #5: 8^th Seed — Miss the Playoffs

How: Guelph loss vs. Carleton + Queen’s win vs. Toronto

Thing’s are looking bleak for the once 4-0 Waterloo Warriors. They ultimately don’t hold the necessary tie-breakers to make the playoffs. Their only hope is that Queen’s loses to Toronto, who has only won one game this season.

7. Carleton Ravens (3-4)

Week 9 Matchup: vs. Guelph (4-3)

Scenario #1: 5^th Seed

How: Win vs. Guelph by more than one point + Queen’s loss vs. Toronto

Scenario #2: 5^th Seed

How: Win vs. Guelph + Queen’s win vs. Toronto

Scenario #3: 6^th Seed

How: Win vs. Guelph by one point + Queen’s loss vs. Toronto

Scenario #4: 7^th Seed — Miss the playoffs

How: Loss vs. Guelph + Queen’s loss vs. Toronto

Scenario #5: 8^th Seed — Miss the playoffs

How: Loss vs. Guelph + Queen’s win vs. Toronto

Based off of their win against Ottawa in the Panda Game, Carleton holds the other four-way tiebreaker. So it is a win-and you’re-in situation for the Ravens. Falling to 3-5 won’t cut it for Carleton however, so their playoff lives are clinging to a win.

8. Queen’s Gaels (3-4)

Week 9 Matchup: @ Toronto (1-6)

Scenario #1: 6^th Seed

How: Win vs. Toronto + Guelph win vs. Carleton

Scenario #2: 7^th Seed

How: Win vs. Toronto + Guelph loss vs. Carleton

Scenario #3: 8^th Seed

How: Loss vs. Toronto

After starting the season 0-4, the Queen’s Gaels are still alive in the playoff race. They still need help though, as they do not own any tie-breakers in the event of a four-way tie. First, the Gaels need to take down the 1-6 Toronto Varsity Blues, and then all eyes will be on MNP Park and the Guelph Gryphons.

This may be one of the most exciting days in U SPORTS football history, as only one team has locked up their seeding in the 2017 OUA Playoffs. This means that every game matters in one way or another. No matter which team you are cheering for, your eyes should be glued to OUA.tv this weekend.